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March BOGO is down 24% in last 3 months while both Gasoil and Bean Oil curve collapses

BOGO has recovered somewhat this week after the massive drop of gasoil last week but a lower trend for BOGO remains firmly in place. The gasoil curve has also dropped massively since the beginning of January with Mar/Dec being cut in half at +$60/mt. We see the same even more pronounced pattern in Bean oil as a monster Brazilian crop is getting harvested. The bean oil curve has flattened even more dramatically than gasoil for Mar/Dec +7 to +1.23. Considering that SouthAmerican discounts to futures are still historically extremely low, we would expectbean oil futures market to move into a more traditional contango or carry. Recent USDA report has really not changed any patterns with larger world carry-out for 22/23 for Corn, Wheat and Beans.






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