ICE Gasoil Reset, Hormuz Still Broken, Agriculture Moves the Other Way

Strait Still Constrained, VLCC Rates at $200k/Day, Global Oil Stocks Down 187 mb Since Feb While Grain Stocks Rise Above 800 mmt

The ICE gasoil rollover defines today’s price action. Apr/Dec has reset to May/Dec from +475.50 to roughly +295.75. That removes panic but leaves a strong backwardation. Brent physical sits near $125.88/bbl in Europe, with Oman crude around $132.67/bbl. The structure shows prompt tightness remains while the market pushes risk further out on the curve.

Nothing material has changed in Hormuz. Vessel tracking shows almost no inbound empty tankers, which prevents clearing of onshore storage. Estimates of roughly 11 million b/d of shut-in crude remain consistent with that flow constraint. Even with an immediate reopening, flows would resume quickly but normalization of freight, insurance, and routing would take weeks. Full normalization still points into June based on current dislocation.

Shipping is tightening the system. US Gulf crude is rerouting to Asia, increasing voyage distances materially. VLCC rates are holding near $200,000/day, reflecting strong ton-mile demand. The effect is mechanical. A fixed fleet is tied up longer, reducing effective supply of both vessels and deliverable crude in time terms. Barrels exist, but arrival timing is stretched.

Distillates confirm the stress. Jet fuel in Singapore reached $225.58/bbl earlier this month and still trades around $211.55/bbl. European jet stands near $1,574.75/mt, up about 90% from late February levels near $831/mt. This shows the constraint sits in refining output and logistics rather than crude availability. Diesel and jet are driving pricing across the barrel.

Global inventories reinforce the tightening. Visible oil stocks are about 7,948 mb, down 187 mb since late February. The latest weekly draw runs near 12 mb/d when combining onshore and floating storage changes. That pace cannot persist without either higher prices or demand reduction. The system is moving toward a short-term make or break world economy window into late April and early May.

Agriculture moves in the opposite direction. WASDE shows global grain ending stocks rising above 800 mmt from about 748 mmt lows in 2025. South American supply remains strong with Brazil soy near 180 mmt and Argentina corn estimates between 57 and 67 mmt depending on the source. At the same time, managed money holds a record net long in CBOT soybean oil near 151,000 contracts versus a prior peak near 127,000. Physical signals remain weaker, with export premiums such as Paranaguá still deeply negative versus futures. Supply is not tight, but positioning is.

NWE biodiesel reflects this divergence. With ICE gasoil near $1,250–1,300/mt equivalent, RME trades around +170–190, implying flat prices near $1,420–1,480/mt. FAME 0 at +120–140 translates to roughly $1,360–1,420/mt. UCOME holds above +300, keeping flat prices near $1,550–1,600/mt. Rapeseed oil for April is near €1,100/mt, or about $1,280/mt, which leaves gross replacement margins for RME in the $140–200/mt range. The driver is diesel, not feedstock. Vegetable oil availability caps further premium expansion, while elevated paper positioning in soyoil adds downside risk if energy prices soften.

The market is split. Energy is tightening through logistics and refining constraints. Agriculture is well supplied. Biofuels are pulled higher by diesel but capped by feedstock abundance and vulnerable positioning. That combination supports volatility rather than a one-way move.

The next 10 to 14 days will force resolution. If Hormuz reopens with credible security, Brent and gasoil flat prices will correct lower and the curve will flatten further, although distillates may remain supported. If disruption persists, ton-mile inflation and inventory draws will continue, pushing the system into another phase of stress probably starting next week. The probability of volatility is high. The probability of higher prices depends on whether logistics remain impaired.