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ICE Gasoil curve bounces back with renewed geopolitical tensions

We did experience a total collapse of the ICE Gasoil curve to Dec from nearly +$50 at end of January to -$8 just a few days ago. Nonetheless summer biodiesel is still showing a $54/mt backwardation in Northwest Europe. This may have something to do with fact that Bean oil futures still remains backwarded through Dec23 to the tune of nearly 1.38 or $30/mt. This maybe attributed to a slight recovery in premium in South America to -900 rather than the 4 digits we have been seeing for a while now. Although we are not seeing a similar recovery in South American Soybean premium and the Soyoil chart still looks ugly having broken 200dma. News today of serious industrial slow down (-10%) in Germany will not help the demand situation in Europe. Therefore all eyes are on the US demand side of the equation with Renewable Diesel. We can already see large insurance positioning in call options for July bean all the way to 85 while there is large put open interest at 48.

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