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Harvest weather in US excellent while Europe faces further Rhine navigation issues


Seems both Europe and upper Mississippi facing low water navigation issues putting strains on logistics. Winter Biodiesel RME is showing nearly +$200/mt backwardation through Q2 despite a bumper Rapeseed harvest in EU. In fact RSO cash prices are flat through Q2 at $980/mt FOB Dutch Mill while RME is trading at $1398/mt flat price reflecting exceptional margins although energy costs are still higher than last season. All elevator basis for Soybean in upper-midwest range from deeply negative -50 to -60 to -98 in Memphis as exports to China are still struggling. News that ADM had resumed operations mid-Sep after a fire was welcome news but did little yet in firming values although Chicago basis is slightly positive at +10X. Soybean oil values in Argentina are still in the doldrums with best bids for Soybean oil FOB at -1700. Hard to get very bullish Veg oil values for Q4 with still a lot of EU Rapeseed to crush, Ukraine&Russia seeds on the move pushing Sunflower oil values to a $65/mt discount to Rapeseed oil in FOB Dutch mill, a bumper US crop and finally higher stocks for Palm oil.

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