Seems both Europe and upper Mississippi facing low water navigation issues putting strains on logistics. Winter Biodiesel RME is showing nearly +$200/mt backwardation through Q2 despite a bumper Rapeseed harvest in EU. In fact RSO cash prices are flat through Q2 at $980/mt FOB Dutch Mill while RME is trading at $1398/mt flat price reflecting exceptional margins although energy costs are still higher than last season. All elevator basis for Soybean in upper-midwest range from deeply negative -50 to -60 to -98 in Memphis as exports to China are still struggling. News that ADM had resumed operations mid-Sep after a fire was welcome news but did little yet in firming values although Chicago basis is slightly positive at +10X. Soybean oil values in Argentina are still in the doldrums with best bids for Soybean oil FOB at -1700. Hard to get very bullish Veg oil values for Q4 with still a lot of EU Rapeseed to crush, Ukraine&Russia seeds on the move pushing Sunflower oil values to a $65/mt discount to Rapeseed oil in FOB Dutch mill, a bumper US crop and finally higher stocks for Palm oil.
Comments