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Gasoil up 24% in last 3 months and BOGO down 56%


We are on verge of breaking key supports on BOGO as we are now trading at +277 over ICE Gasoil and we must watch +210 support area. EU reported sizable imports of Biodiesel and we are forecasted to still grow such at +14% this year. Clearly Chinese origin UCOME is being replaced by Malaysia. RSO backwardation or inverse broke to less than $32/mt from last week's >$100 yet RME margins remains $140/mt on the spot as Gasoil is up 2.5% today and 24% these last 3 months.

The whole non-winter spec Bio market has now switched to a strong contango in premium, almost $65/mt while UCOME for the first time is showing a contango on a flat price level to Q1 while Gasoil nov/apr is still showing backwardation of $82/mt! Obviously there is a large demand shift occurring while at the same time tanks are full again. Soyoil is definitely the anomaly here trading in EU at $257/mt over Sunflower oil. Something has to give here that only translate in a much lower BOGO especially with large improvement of navigation in Mississippi at tail end of harvest.





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