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Gasoil flat price rises and backwardation to Sep drops to only +242% for last 3 months


Gasoil expires tmrw with ICE screen at $823 flat price while april trading $20/mt lower. Biodiesel F0 and RME showing large backwardation to Q2 with +72 and +93 respectively as production margins come under pressure with slightly higher feedstock prices. Although news this morning that Ukraine had supplied 600kt of SFO in Dec and Jan each month should resume pressure on soft oils in Europe. Traders were mostly absent last week due to a well attended Vegetable oil and waste oils conference in Kuala Lumpur. The buzz at the conference was the poor yields of palm and continued support by Indonesia on Biofuels inclusion boosting POGO to +40 from negative levels. There was little effect on BOGO at +239 as Brazil harvest is ongoing but news of poor Soybean imports by China was concerning with Chinese analyst announcing soy imports as low as 82 mil MT this year - that equates in oil term is about -2 mil MT which in light of increased Vegoil availability based on current oilseeds forecasts would mean a swing of + 5 mil MT. This probably explains the record CBOT short futures&options positions in soybeans..



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