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Gasoil expiry throws Biodiesel into deeper contango


FAME spot flat price is now finally below $1000 at $978/MT. Q4/Q2 FAME is contango now -83 in premium and -39 flat price. UCOME is similarly showing Q4/Q2 at -48 flat price. Only RME (winter biodiesel) remains flat at $1089 while rapeseed oil dropped 2% today still showing approximately a scant $90/mt of Gross biodiesel margin so the vertically integrated producers will continue to produce as the oilseed crushers don't know where else to move the oil. USDA report yesterday was essentially a non-event but USDA lowered the expectations on SouthAmerica by 1 Mil MT on Soybeans to still showing a very healthy 114.5 Mil MT world carry out reserves - it should be noted that CONAB forecast for Brazil soy crop is 10 Mil MT higher than USDA. Oilseeds situation worldwide remains healthy and strong crushing margin right now through Dec23 will encourage crushers to build stocks as crush margins for Q1 are significantly lower. Building deeper contango in all markets will makes sense now at least through January - it is just a matter of how deep.... vegoils are behind the curve on this.

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