From Immingham to Thailand—and Now Brazil: A Global Realignment in Biofuels, Grains & Oilseeds

The European biodiesel sector is in retreat. Greenergy’s decision to close its Immingham biodiesel plant, with 60 jobs at risk, illustrates the increasing impossibility of sustaining first-gen production in a regulatory vacuum. Margins have evaporated. Imports are dominant. And the writing is now on the wall for many legacy players in northwestern Europe.

Meanwhile, capital is flowing east. Zhuoyue New Energy’s $98 million investment in a new biofuel complex in Thailand adds to the growing list of Asian infrastructure projects capturing the momentum. With feedstock availability, government support, and refined export capacity, Southeast Asia is quickly becoming the core of global renewable fuel supply chains.

In agriculture, structural damage to U.S. export channels is accelerating. Both Iran and South Korea are avoiding U.S. corn and soymeal in their official tenders, following China’s lead earlier this year. This strategic uncoupling from U.S. ag products—amid a wave of unilateral tariffs—is creating a hostile trade environment just as a record North American harvest looms. Unless biofuel demand in the U.S. scales fast, the market may be staring down a prolonged oversupply of grain and oilseeds. D4 RINs trade inconclusively.

D4 RINs

ARAG spot barge trade was active today. FAME 0 traded at +$637/mt over ICE gasoil. RME at +€22.50/mt over F0, and UCOME fetched +$117.50/mt. SAF traded at $2,092/mt, while HVO cl2 remains +$100/mt above it—though prices are often obscured by bundled deals. In distillates, July gasoil expired at +$111/mt over August, with BOGO rising to +$482/mt. The BOGO carry to Dec 2025 sits at -$48/mt. Meanwhile, Soyoil’s Aug/Dec spread is flattening, and weekly futures are holding above the 200-WDMA, often a forward signal for gasoil strength within 2–3 weeks.

Soft oil fundamentals are flashing red globally. Rapeseed oil continues to trade €80–90/mt below Soyoil FOB in Northwest Europe—yet demand remains unresponsive. According to UFOP’s July market bulletin, rapeseed oil “demand remained subdued throughout June” and contract coverage into the new season is still “limited,” raising concerns about further price erosion. Meanwhile, a new trade shock emerged: the U.S. announced a 50% tariff on Brazilian goods starting August 1. Brazil accounted for 10.4% of its exports to the U.S. in 2023—much of it agricultural. The immediate market impact was a 2% drop in the Brazilian real, which ironically improves Brazil’s competitiveness in global markets, especially for its already dominant agricultural exports to China. Unless biodiesel or global demand absorbs this imbalance, the market may soon be drowning in unsold oilseeds and protein meal.