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Expected US Crush figures could be a record at +6% y-o-y

Soybean crush figures to be released by NOPA today would probably confirm 177-179 mbu crushed in Feb with screen oil share still at 41.5%. Soybean futures likely to be under pressure. FOB premiums in oil in Paranagua have barely changed in last month despite harvest in Brazil 55% completed. Brazil introduction of a new law that would increased biodiesel blending by 1% increase every year since current 14% blend rate has clearly been discounted in market. D4 RINs in US have returned to trading above 56.7 c/gal in line with stronger feedstock prices but this could be temporary. Biodiesel screen crush margins have deteriorated by 0.20 c/gal or $60/mt. F0 is trading in ARAG at +324-325 while BOGO is +243 driven mostly by lack of high cfpp blending products although UCOME/F0 trading at a paltry $150/mt spread to F0 highlighting lack of higher cfpp China product in the market. SME from Argentina appears now to be on its way to Europe. Market reasonably strong ahead of driving season but still think that ample vegoil supplies on both sides of Atlantic will keep fame premium market capped at current levels as we are still exceeding mandates.

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