Europe Must End Double Counting to Achieve True Transport Decarbonization
After reviewing the latest market developments and Q1 company results — particularly the deeply concerning earnings from Neste — it is clear that the renewable fuel sector is undergoing a major structural shift. Neste reported a 70% year-on-year collapse in renewable EBITDA for Q1 2025, down to just EUR 72 million, despite a modest recovery from Q4’s near-break-even. Their average renewable margin was only USD 310/ton, still well below the 2024 average of 377, and far off the USD 562/ton achieved in Q1 last year. Neste openly cited global overcapacity, stubbornly high feedstock costs, and the expiration of the U.S. Blender’s Tax Credit (BTC) as key margin pressures — further worsened by regulatory uncertainty around the new U.S. Clean Fuel Production Credit (45Z).
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