EPA Moves the Clock, Winter Diesel Moves the Curve Higher
Either EPA has started reading GlobalBiodiesel, or the RIN market finally became loud enough for Washington to hear it. December 2026 D4 RIN futures fell 12.2% Friday to $2.085 after trading near $2.33 earlier in the session, following EPA’s decision to extend the September 1 deadline for 2025 RFS compliance and decide the remaining 2025 small-refinery exemptions by the end of August. There are 34 pending SRE petitions for the 2025 compliance year alone. The response was quick and effective in stopping the RIN rally, but EPA did not produce another gallon of biodiesel or renewable diesel. July D4 plus D5 generation was approximately 818 million RINs versus a required monthly pace near 916 million, leaving the January-July deficit around 1.6 billion RINs. The bigger question is becoming the credibility of the compliance calendar itself. The RVO remains legally intact, but when compliance dates repeatedly move as costs rise, the date becomes a weaker trading anchor. EPA has shown that it has a pressure-release valve for RINs: more time.
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