Unfortunately, the EIA data is delayed by 2 months, but the trend of higher tallow use at +45% y-o-y and Yellow Grease at +26.79% looks like it is at the expense of Soybean oil, so it is not just UCO imports that are causing the switch to other feedstocks. UCO as a feedstock is not validated by EIA data because it would too easily reveal the operations of a single operator. We also note from the EIA data a 300 million gallons drop in renewable diesel capacity, which may be due to Vertex Energy's bankruptcy, but there was no change in conventional biodiesel capacity. Today was a wild day in the energy trade because of geopolitical issues, with gasoil opening up strongly and trading within a $43/mt range, yet settled short of the high at $678/mt. Trade was brisk with RME/F0 continuing its extension to $180/mt... we were at $90/mt just a week ago. It should be noted that UCOME/F0 has also expanded dramatically, showing a premium of +318, while it was +200/mt a week ago. The UCOME/HVO class 2 premium spread is now only $100/mt, while the spread between RSO and Bean oil in the Northwest European Dutch mill market is only $17/mt, and UCO/Bean oil is -25/mt. The Rhine river water level is now above the 5-year maximum, likely to cause more logistical issues. I don't recall seeing so many divergences at the same time as we are seeing now.
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