Diesel Scarcity Has Not Disappeared, It Has Simply Moved Further Down the Curve
ICE gasoil continued to signal a structurally tight middle distillate market on Monday ahead of the May gasoil expiry tomorrow, although the extreme panic pricing seen into the April expiry has moderated significantly. Front month June gasoil settled near $1,199/mt while December traded around $913/mt, leaving the Jun/Dec backwardation at +$286/mt versus the extraordinary +$490/mt seen during the April expiry cycle. Jul/Dec remains highly backwardated near +$205/mt, confirming that the market continues to manage scarcity through rolling backwardation rather than through any real normalization in physical balances.
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