Diesel Prices the War as the RMB Raises the UCO Floor
Every Monday now delivers another contradiction. August WTI expires tomorrow with Cushing inventories near 20 million barrels, yet Aug/Sep backwardation remains close to only $0.85/bbl. Refined products show far greater stress. August gasoil reached $1,199/mt, its premium over December widened to $219/mt, the screen heat crack rebounded to $90.49/bbl and the 3:2:1 crack reached $69.51/bbl. Brent Aug/Dec backwardation widened to $5.68/bbl. West Asian escalation has spread toward Saudi Arabia and Yemen, adding Red Sea and Bab el-Mandeb exposure to the disruption around Hormuz. US pump prices already reflect the pressure, with regular gasoline at $4.003/gal and diesel at $5.108/gal, up 13.1 cents and 23.3 cents from one week earlier. The crude curve remains relaxed while distillates price scarcity.
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