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Cracks in Confidence: U.S. Bets on Biofuel Reform While EU Struggles with HVO Fraud

May 15, 2025
2 min read

Today’s market showed signs of structural tightening as Jun/Sep and Jun/Dec ICE gasoil backwardations widened by +$12.50 and +$17.25/mt respectively up >30% on the day—despite bearish chart patterns and subdued sentiment. In the ARAG spot barge market, a sharp recalibration occurred: FAME 0°C is trading at $1,267/mt, while RME surged to a $68/mt premium. UCOME dropped to $1,375/mt, continuing its recent decline on lower activity.

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