What the data hides is that Singapore is a proxy US destination so in reality we can say that 71% of China's UCO exports are now going to the US being an essential part of the mix for renewable diesel. These US imports are driving lower LCFS Carbon Intensity on Renewable diesel that was already 43.24 through end of Q2. It should be noted that conventional biodiesel was lower at 27.46. This exemplifies how challenging it is for Soyoil to compete in the mix. LCFS credits continue to be banked forward and pricing remains under pressure at $67.15/mt. This simply means we are exceeding mandates. Meanwhile US elections will bring into question all programs under IRA and certainly IRS guidance. Meanwhile in Europe, trends if for higher premiums in line with BOGO which bounced higher to +$345 up 15% today. RME trading at $1370/mt which is a replacement value gross margin of $182/mt while UCOME is trading at $1408 with a gross margin of $288/mt but rising power costs in EU make these margins fleeting.
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