China custom data shows that Jan-Jul24 exports amounted to 668Kt which is still quite high considering that all of last year, China exported 1.8 Million MT. Duties will be official starting next Friday and their retroactivity to last Oct1 will depend on a number of factors set by the EU which seems to be all fulfilled and to be paid by importers. This is significant action against Chinese Biodiesel/HVO producers but still excludes SAF exports. The European Biodiesel Board has already complained against this SAF exclusion. Considering the additional EV countervailing duties being imposed on China EV producers, it would seem the EU diplomats will be quite busy with China next few months. UCOME prices in NWE are now $1288/mt yield gross margins of $201/mt which is narrow considering operating costs and yield loss. Meanwhile, RME (winter Bio) is yielding $76/mt gross margin with considerably less operating costs and yield loss. FAME trading still at significant $164/mt premium to BOGO with flat price at 1057/mt.. My estimates are that bio production in EU is uneconomic unless you are vertically intergrated with crushing. Rapeseed oil is now the cheapest soft oil in northwesst Europe with a slight front contango othewise flat structure through next year's crop. Despite strong Paranagua premium for Soyoil offered at nearly +300 while new crop next year is bid -400, the soyoil futures technicals have not changed although many tempted to call a bottom. This writer believes that Gasoil downtrend if confirmed may drive lower levels on Soyoil.
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