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Changes in Global oilseeds stocks (-3%) have resulted in massive price increases (+81%) since 2020

Soybean stock to use ratio dropped to 22% in Mar 2021 yet we are now back to 27% stock to use since that low, or up 5% yet prices have continued to stay high. The 4 major vegetable oils (palm oil, Soyoil, canola oil, sunoil) were trading between $500-$750/mt in May 2020 during the covid crisis then traded in a range of $1750-$2500 in May 2022 following the Ukraine invasion while we are now back to a range of $1000-1750. This range is still 2X more than prior to Covid. Of course, we would have to look at Gasoil, to truly measure the reason for this sustained price inflation as gasoil moved from 450-550 pre-Covid and is still trading at nearly $800/mt. The increased gasoil (Diesel) values certainly have not impacted plantings and/or yields and we can already see that fertilizer prices are in a free fall. Once again, we should be looking forward a Gasoil down leg not too far off in the future unless we have another black-swan event.

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