Brazil’s Export Pull Tightens Crush, Europe’s Margins Firm, Palm Lifts POGO

China imported 11.67 MMT of soybeans in July, a record for the month and up 19% year-on-year, taking MY24/25 imports to 84.22 MMT with two months to go. Yet there are still no U.S. new-crop sales to China. CBOT board crush for Q4 is holding at 195–211¢/bu (about $72–78/mt), still elevated but easing from highs. In Brazil, the squeeze is export-driven: a heavy bean program has drained interior supply, lifting FOB Paranaguá soyoil basis to –$250/t for September and –$350/t for Oct/Nov/Dec. Local crushers are struggling to secure beans, slowing runs or shutting down despite strong oil prices.

The European biodiesel window started the week firmer. RME traded at +703 $/t over gasoil and FAME 0 at +688 $/t, putting the RME/FAME spread at 18.2 $/t. UCOME at +792–795 $/t held the UCOME/FAME premium above $100/t. Flat prices are roughly $1,369/t (RME), $1,363/t (FAME 0), and $1,458.50/t (UCOME). On current feedstocks, gross margins are about $210/t for UCOME (UCO ex-works Europe $1,207–1,219/t), $63.5/t for FAME (soyoil NWE €1,130/t × 1.15), and $178.75/t for RME (rapeseed oil €1,035/t × 1.15). Soyoil’s premium to rapeseed remains just under €100/t, keeping rapeseed-based barrels competitive while waste-based margins dominate.

In Asia, palm oil continues to support blend economics. POGO has added about $30/t since late July, moving from around $303/t to the low $330s on the weekly, with the forward strip mostly in the $343–370/t range. The firmness is underpinned by Indonesia’s biodiesel sales reaching 6.8 million kiloliters in H1 2025, already more than half its annual target, which tightens exportable supply. Combined with a seasonal lift in Indian palm buying ahead of the festival period, nearby palm remains well bid despite MPOB’s July stock build. BMD Oct CPO settled at RM 4,254/t (~$1,003/t).

POGO

Energy curves are providing a strong foundation for biodiesel premia. Front-month ICE gasoil is up about 14% over the past three months, with the Aug/Sep backwardation near +9 $/t and Sep/Dec at +24.5 $/t. Sep25/Sep26 carries about +33.5 $/t, reinforcing positive gross margins and keeping discretionary blending signals intact where feedstocks are secured.

With China’s absence from the U.S. new-crop program, Brazilian crushers squeezed by an export-driven bean draw, Europe holding firm with profitable producer margins, and Asia’s palm flows boosted by strong domestic biodiesel consumption and seasonal Indian demand, the complex remains underpinned by diesel strength and tight low-CI feedstocks. The next catalysts are any first U.S. flashes to China, MPOB’s August stock read, and whether gasoil’s strength holds through month-end.