BOGO Is Not Done as Diesel Tightness Meets Hidden Leverage
Thursday was a curve session rather than a genuine release of energy-market stress. August heating oil expires Friday with only 6.1 cents/gal of backwardation to September, down from 13.4 cents/gal, while August/December remains backwardated by 57.5 cents/gal. ICE gasoil gives the cleaner physical signal. August/September held near +$86/mt and August/December eased only to around +$280/mt, despite August gasoil falling $21.75/mt to $1,286.75/mt. WTI September declined $0.72/bbl to $83.74 and Brent September lost $1.49/bbl to $89.25, while gold gained $66/oz to $4,102.30. Crude liquidation did not remove prompt distillate scarcity. A post-roll break below $60/mt in ICE gasoil August/September would challenge the diesel-tightness thesis. Thursday’s crude decline does not.
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