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Biodiesel trades firm up as Gasoil up +2.63% in the New Year

FAME finally trades at +335 which is above BOGO values of +302 as gasoil rebounds strongly. Soybeanoil was featureless and up only a scant +0.65% despite FOB premium offers firming up in Paranagua port to -600 against bids of -950. Brazil announced that they would go to 14% mandate on Biodiesel which should probably add another 200-300Kt of Soybean oil demand depending on spread with Tallow and many other products that have creeped up into Brazil feedstock matrix. In Argentina, we see a wide liberalization of the energy sector with Biodiesel now free to compete on pricing alone within a 7.5% mandate which Milei is not very eager to support long term despite his adversarial position Vs BRICS but particularly China which is a large client of both Brazil and Argentina. In Europe Rapeseed winter biodiesel showing Gross crush margin of $288/mt with Rapeseed oil just as cheap as Sunflower oil - at such margin, it is remarkable we still see +$139/mt RME/F0 spread. Bean oil in Europe remains the most expensive soft oil despite fact that Soybeans world stock-to-use ratio is 29.75%.

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