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Biodiesel/RD margins remains strong +35% in last 3 months

Screen crush in Bio remains very healthy while USDA report did not indicate anything dire on the supply front. Soybean crops and stocks remain large with >110mil Metric Tons in 23/24 and rising to 129mil Metric Tons in 24/25. US soy stocks also remained stable although world inventories for Soybeans are mostly in the Southern hemisphere. Soft oil prices in Europe reacted on the bullish side while Chicago futures weakened. Despite this RME/F0 traded on the spot at -30 but F0 Gross margin are a healthy $210/mt while RME margin is narrower now which is seasonal. UCOME gross margin are $205/mt but wondering why buying still strong for F0 at these values when BOGO is +215 meaning that FAME0 is trading at 2.3X BOGO. Either some traders think UCOME will not longer be double counting but certainly this relationship is not sustainable. Meanwhile entire trade is impatient on the decision for UCOME imports from China by the EU commission. Most UCOME flows from China have already stopped in expectation of a decision. ICE Gasoil expired yesterday at +8 over the front month and we can already see that sep/dec backwardation is already weakening as expected with the intense political turmoil in EU.

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