Biodiesel/RD: Diesel Still Sets the Price
Friday finished with the strongest scarcity signals still sitting in refined products. August ICE gasoil gained $24.25/mt, or 2.07%, to $1,197/mt, September rose $27/mt, or 2.43%, to $1,138.50/mt, and December gained $25.75/mt to $1,003.75/mt. August/September backwardation eased only $2.75 to +$58.50/mt, while August/December remained +$193.25/mt. The heating-oil crack closed near $85.72/bbl and the 3:2:1 near $60.04/bbl, both still near the top of their historical ranges. Brent ended Friday at $83.55/bbl and WTI at $78.18/bbl. Weekend satellite work raised the seven-day average Hormuz crude flow to about 5.3 mb/d after additional dark transits were identified. Yet combined Hormuz-Yanbu-ADCOP exports for August 1-7 were still estimated at only 54% of pre-war capacity, leaving roughly 8 mb/d missing. Kpler counted eight confirmed Hormuz crossings on August 7, down 33% day on day, while TankerTrackers identified at least 56 tankers operating without normal digital visibility. Iran’s six conditions for reopening Hormuz also overlap substantially with provisions already contained in the June MOU, while reported vessel attacks show physical risk has not disappeared. For Monday, the cleanest test is flow. A move toward 7 to 8 mb/d without further vessel incidents would give traders a numerical reason to test the +$58.50/mt front gasoil backwardation lower. Flows remaining near 5.3 mb/d would leave the physical constraint largely unchanged.
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