No less than extraordinary move in synthetic crush margin on screen in 6 months despite tumbling diesel values, feedstocks have fallen even faster! In fact Soybean oil is in contango through July while gasoil is still showing a backwardation of $25/mt through July. Margin in US remain solid as 45z kicks in while in Europe we can see solid margin of $255/mt on the spot RME while Rapeseed Oil in Holland/Germany, similarly as Soybean oil in Chicago futures, shows a contango down the curve to dec24 of almost $38.5/mt...$22 of which is through July! The cheapest soft oil in Europe remains Rapeseed oil. Despite economic uncertainty, FAME biodiesel premium in Northwest Europe is trading above BOGO with premium curve mainly flat through Q3 but flat price remains in significant backwardation of $68/mt through Q3. This reflects general feeling of limited stocks on Biodiesel with sword of damocles still hanging over supplies of UCOME from China. Premium for UCOME remains at $200 over FAME which is not reflective of supply chain uncertainties although this will be dictated by gasoil demand in Europe which at this time is not strong enough to require any additional supplies.
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