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Bean oil collapses after WASDE


Difficult to see where next support is for Bean oil at this stage as technical damage is serious. FOB premium in Paranagua did not move that much and remain at -800 having appreciated 100 points only. Rapeseed oilseed crop in Europe is also now announced to be 3-4% greater and we see soft oil prices in Europe trading $20-35/mt lower with RSO still cheapest at $825/mt or $55/mt below Soyoil . My feeling is that Gasoil is preventing further downside as only the 50dma has not crossed the 200dma but it is near. Crack margins in diesel remain >$20/brl so difficult not to see $500 gasoil coming soon. BOGO remains stubbornly at $430/mt while FAME trading at +250-280/mt. Based on this, would say BOGO possibly has $200/mt downside. Nothing is easy for the trade as no one wants to catch a falling knife!

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