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backwardation collapses in gasoil and Biodiesel in NWE


Demand chills as Europe faces holidays doldrums Jul/Sep backwardation is down to -1.25 and probably not done yet. Even Jul/Dec gasoil structure is down to +10.75. Biodiesel premiums in NWE haven't changed much despite large moves in BOGO which is now +300 or a $100/mt move in one week mostly led by rally in Soybean oil. Producers reporting marked slow-down in biodiesel demand for q3 with most of Aug/Sep simply not sold and this despite a $50-60/mt backwardation in physical spot values. Soybean oil futures went off board at 49.62 while premium FOB paranagua are now trading at -600 which is nearly 300 points lower than last week. We are now trading backwardation in Soybean oil but this is truly a US futures phenomenon (tighter S&D within US) reflecting the strong pull from US Renewable diesel trying to maximize BTC and all other incentives prior to budgetary year-end in US (Oct1). RINs fall below 0.50 as over-production of RINs continues.



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