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Diesel develops unusual driving season contango

Updated: May 9

Easing of Russian Banks sanctions by US treasury on energy products has had its desired effect. Everyone now scrambling for finding storage on both side of Atlantic with May/Sep gasoil contango at -6.5/mt with the expectations that it will widen even more. RME Gross margin widened to $152/mt basis replacement value while Biodiesel gross screen crush margin in US hardly moved at -27 cpg without RINs. USDA and EPA finally released today the 40B SAF GREET model guidance which is pretty much as expected requiring 50% ghg savings min with some additional allowances for carbon capture and CSA (Climate Smart Agriculture) to allow for easier use of the additonal carbon intensity subsidy beyond the 1.25 cpg SAF subsidy that can go as high as 1.75 cpg ( $670/mt basis 69 density). 40B and 45Z rule become effective on Jan 1, 2025.

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