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SouthAmerica weather market pushes BOGO higher despite ICE gasoil rout

BOGO back up to +375 while spot FAME in Northwest Europe looks like a bargain at premium Vs ICE of +290. USDA last update the Brazil crop at 160 Mil MT but the real number to watch is total SouthAm crop which is still 236 Mil MT still +25 Mil MT higher. Quite a buffer with GMO crop seeds that are not so vulnerable to dry weather. Nevertheless, crop is 94% planted now and weather must be watched considering what happened last year in Argentina. So expect volatility in the growing season through Mar. Despite the action in Chicago futures, cash markets in Europe for Q1 Soybean oil vs Rapeseed oil have narrowed to only 35Euro/MT from over 50. RME/F0 has narrowed from +200 at beginning of Oct to +140 as gross margin for RME (winter biodiesel) producers remains at $192/mt which is good. So in absence of weather watches for SouthAmerica, Soyoil premiums in Paranagua continue to drop with Q1 offered at -1150 and Soyoil futures chart that just isn't bullish.

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