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Harvest progress at 25%, D4 RINs stay below $1 but Biodiesel crush margin takes a pause

Screen Margins for Biodiesel have improved nearly +60% in last 3 months but Diesel/Gasoil rally finally took a pause. Harvest progress in US has reached 25% putting pressure on basis everywhere in US interior but in Europe we can see increasing prices perhaps from most recent announcement that Ukraine vegetable oil and grain shipments are down 10-20% this year. Although, sunflower oil remains the cheapest soft oil in Europe at 915USD/MT in a contango structure through Jun24. Nevertheless, rapeseed oil spiked up to 1155/MT with steep backwardation possibly related to difficult navigation logistics within EU for seeds. BOGO still trading +$120 above FAME spot premiums with a flat price value of $1202. But most importantly, the diesel pricing pause if sustained will certainly put a damper on RME crush margins at current levels. Gasoil is now up 25% in last 3 months and chart still looking solid; certainly, much stronger than Soybean oil.

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