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BOGO drops 13% as soyoil makes one standard deviation adjustment


BOGO is now down 17.4% in last 3 months with most of the drop achieved only today after the fake rally of last friday. Expect further weakness now to resume as jun/Sep gasoil contango widened further and everyone now watching Soyoil N/U widening already to 55 or $12/mt. As expected Admin announced new tariffs/duty on China that essentially further taxed green products like Solar, Batteries and EV automobiles. Market is a bit perplexed as this will slow implementation of many green programs organized by this same Admin. This of course excluded UCO imports as agriculture related products remain extremely sensible in an election year. Although the UCO China issue is probably not the last time we will hear of it as US crushing industry remains in panic mode on realization of the carbon intensity issue. NOPA stats expected on Wed will probably show another record US crushing # and soyoil stocks which may finally crack the 40 c/lbs soyoil level. Northwest Europe remains the odd man out with still firm summer premium on F0 at +405 over ICE gasoil with gross Biodiesel margins narrowing today as Gasoil weakness is always the greatest enemy of Biodiesel margins. Screen Heat crack not looking particularly bullish but cracks may have to go lower!



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