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Bean oil as a % of Gasoil relentlessly higher ahead of RVOs

Even earlier this year when we thought we had no Soy crop and with a War in Europe we didn't reach 1.80X but here we are just ahead of Renewable Volume Obligations. Is this sustainable? Perhaps! It depends on changing trends in Gasoil as we are seeing a surprising contango developing Dec/Jan yet showing a backwardation of nearly +47/mt from Jan to Apr23. Hearing that Russian Diesel in Asia getting discounted at significant levels. However, if a combination of seasonal demand decrease, increased Russian Barrels and growing distillate stocks in US, we could be in for a a big drop in diesel values that could temporarily take this bean oil spread to gasoil higher. FAME premiums in Europe are in contango despite Germany burning coal and producing record high emissions (745 g of CO2 per KwH). Frankly this means we need much more Biodiesel in transportation sector to offset this mess so expect this spread to be well supported.


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